At the bell round
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At the bell round
With just one round left in both tournaments, the playoff positions are still up for grabs. Only LCC is assured of the #1 seed in both formats. Here are the permutations and combinations.
In the final league outing, FCCC meets CCB , LCC meets CSCC and FRCC meets CCCC. Here is the “what if” scenario for each team.
LCC – Win or lose, they have grabbed the #1 position and will be playing the #2 in the first qualifier.
CCB - Currently in second position after their win against FRCC (series tied at 1-1) and a better net run rate, a win against FCCC will assure them #2 or #3. A loss however could get the qualification path very muddy. Wins for FRCC and CSCC would eliminate them in 5th position. Wins for FRCC and LCC would still keep them in the hunt as the #4 seed. Wins for CCCC and LCC would mean a 4 way tie on 8 points. CCCC and FCCC would take #2 and #3 depending on net run rate. CCB and FRCC would fight for the last spot depending on their net run rates. And finally wins for CCCC and CSCC would eliminate them as CSCC would take #2 position and CCCC and FCCC would take #3 and #4 positions based on net run rate. Bottom line is they must win, or else hope that CSCC loses too.
FRCC – A win would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs as #2 (if CCB loses or if they overtake CCB’s net run rate) or #3 (if CCB wins and maintains a higher net run rate). A loss could spell disaster. Wins for CCB and LCC would mean they tie CCCC on points, and with the series tie at 1-1, net run rate will determine if they secure the #3 or #4 position. Wins for CCB and CSCC would mean they would be fighting with CCCC for the 4th position. Wins for FCCC would mean the big 4-way tie and depending on CSCC winning or losing, the tied teams would fight for 2 or 3 spots in the play offs. See the CCB analysis above for resolution of the 4 way tie.
FCCC – A must win game for them. Win and they qualify, lose and they are out. If CSCC and FRCC win, they will be tied with CCB but will edge them out into #4 position based on head to head performance. If LCC and FRCC win FCCC will take #3 position ahead of CCB. If LCC and CCCC win we get into the 4 way tie and FCCC will take #2 or #3 based on net run rate. If CCCC and CSCC win, the fight will be for #3 and #4 based on net run rate.
CCCC – Win and they have a chance, lose and they are out. If they win, they will need some help from other teams to qualify. If CSCC and CCB win, they will be tied with FRCC on points and head to head performance. Net run rate will then decide who takes #4. If LCC and CCB win, they will qualify along with FRCC in #3 or #4 based on net run rate. If FCCC wins, we get into the 4 way tie and depending on CSCC winning or losing, the tied teams would fight for 2 or 3 spots in the play offs. See the CCB analysis above for resolution of the 4 way tie.
CSCC – A win would guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. Their position will depend on whether CCB and or FRCC win. Both win they get 4th. Either one wins they get 3rd. Neither win, they get 2nd.
A loss would only take them thru if both CCB and FRCC win.
ABQCC – They have completed their engagements and there is no chance to advance.
In the final league outing, Tigers take on CCCC, CCB battles with FRCC and CSCC Stars have a double header against the Lions and the Stripes. Here is the “what if” scenario for each team.
LCC Lions – Win or lose, they have grabbed the #1 position and will be playing the #2 in the first qualifier.
FCCC – Having finished their engagements, they are waiting to see what happens in the other games. They will tie with the winner of the CCB-FRCC game. And if CCCC wins, it will be a three way tie. What happens in CSCC Stars’ two remaining games will decide if they can take 2nd position. If the tie is with FRCC, they will be ranked higher based on head to head performance. If they tie with CCB it will come down to net run rate as they have not played each other. In case of a three way tie with FRCC and CCCC, they will still come up on top with a 2-0 head to head performance. If the three way tie is with CCB and CCCC their record will be 1-0. So bottom line, FCCC has already qualified in either 2nd, 3rd or 4th position.
CCB – A win should be enough to take them thru. They have not played FCCC, FRCC or CCCC. Net run rate will decide if they are in a two way tie with FCCC. In case of a three way tie, CCCC will be below them with a 0-1 head to head between the three teams. Again CSCC Stars results will decide if they end up in 2nd, 3rd or 4th position. If they lose, they will also need CCCC to lose and CSCC Stars to lose both their games. If that happens, their better net run rate will assure them the #4 position.
FRCC – They are sitting in a tough spot. A win against CCB will put them in a tie with FCCC. But if CCCC wins, it will be a three way tie. They have lost to both so if CSCC Stars win both their games, they will end up in 5th position. If they lose to CCB, they are definitely out.
CCCC – A win would put them in a three way tie with FCCC and either CCB or FRCC. If it’s FCCC (1-0) and CCB (0-0) then they will take 4th or 5th with a 0-1 record depending on what happens with the CSCC Stars’ games. If it’s FCCC and FRCC, FCCC will take the top spot with a 2-0 head to head and CCCC will take the next spot with a 1-1 while FRCC will be 0-2. If they lose they will take 4th only if FRCC loses too and CSCC Stars loses both their games.
CSCC Stars – The only team with two games left. If they win both, they will jump to second position. If they win one and CCCC loses, they will take 4th . If they lose both they are out.
CSCC Stripes – A sliver of a chance to qualify if they win by a massive margin and CCB wins by a huge margin and CCCC loses and they end up with a better net run rate then CCCC and FRCC. A tough ask.
ABQCC, RCC, BCC, LCC Tigers, YCC and UNM do not have a chance to qualify.
Disclaimer - If you see anything wrong with the analysis, please contact the author.
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